The Rolex Market Shift: Tariffs and Buyer Behavior

I’ve been stalking this one watch like a hawk. Every few days, I’m back on the same sites, refreshing listings and charts, waiting for that magical dip in price that never comes. This isn’t just a casual want anymore—it’s firmly in “much‑needed” territory in my head—but the market clearly hasn’t gotten the memo.

When tariffs hit Swiss watches, there was a moment of hope. Higher import costs, jittery buyers, softer demand—it all sounded like the perfect recipe for a bargain hunter’s dream. Instead, it did something far less exciting: it simply slowed sales in November. Buyers hesitated, brands held their ground, and the price of my watch sat there, stubborn and unmoved.

Then the tariff eased down to 15%, and the whole story flipped. With the pressure reduced, demand roared back to life and December sales took off. The market didn’t reward patience with a discount; it punished hesitation with momentum. So here I am, still tracking, still waiting, still wondering: am I timing the watch market—or is the watch market timing me?

September’s Rolex auction numbers looked perfectly normal at first glance—until tariffs crashed the party and then, just as quickly, lit the afterburners on demand. In four short months, the market told a story of fear, friction, and a year-end buying frenzy.

Setting the scene

Rolex auction data for early autumn painted a picture of steady, healthy demand:

September: 224 watches sold
October: 291 watches sold

That October jump signaled a confident market, with collectors and flippers alike still happy to raise a paddle for the right reference at the right price.datahut

When the tariff hit

Then November arrived—and so did the tariff. Overnight, every bidder had to factor in a new layer of cost and uncertainty. The impact showed up immediately in the numbers:

November sales slipped to 257 watches

Volume didn’t collapse, but the surge from October clearly cooled as buyers hesitated, recalculated premiums, and started asking whether it was smarter to wait, buy locally, or pivot to pieces already in the country.einpresswire+1

The 15% turning point

The real twist came when the tariff was cut to 15% heading into December. With clarity restored and costs partially tamed, pent-up demand exploded:

December sales rocketed to 366 watches

That is not just a recovery; it is a stampede. Collectors who had been sitting on the sidelines, nervous about overpaying under a higher tariff regime, rushed back in once the new 15% level felt both digestible and, crucially, predictable.nationaljeweler+1

What the numbers really say

Look at the arc across those four months and a clear narrative emerges:

Confidence phase: September’s 224 and October’s 291 show a market building momentum.
Shock phase: November’s drop to 257 reflects the psychological punch of a fresh tariff.
Release valve: December’s 366 is the market exhaling—buyers acting before prices and conditions can change again.

In other words, tariffs did not kill the Rolex auction market; they reshaped it. They slowed it, spooked it, and then, once the rules of the game felt clearer at 15%, helped ignite one of the strongest months of sales in the entire period.hodinkee+2

Why this matters for collectors and dealers

For collectors, this mini cycle is a masterclass in timing: external policy moves can matter as much as macro trends when it comes to when you buy your next watch. For dealers and auction houses, it is a reminder that visibility on costs can be more important than low costs themselves; once the market understood the 15% tariff, demand did not just normalize—it overshot.

In the end, those four months of Rolex auction data tell a simple truth: in luxury, uncertainty is more expensive than a tariff, and nothing drives a bidding war quite like the feeling that the window of opportunity might be about to close.

In my next post, I will share numbers from Cartier and Omega during the same period.

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